Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -175 TCU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +27 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -0.3 (+26.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.7 (+24.3) | 146.8 (-3.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -3.2 (+23.8) | 145.7 (-2.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -2.4 (+24.6) | 145.4 (-2.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -3.3 (+23.7) | 145.0 (-2.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UCF 82 – 71 TCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TCU 89 – 78 UCF |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCF 79 – 77 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#87) | 9.4 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#38) | 1.25 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#42) | 1.46 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#29) | 0.553 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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