Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -155 UCF +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +11 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -4.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -4.6 (+6.4) | 150.6 (+16.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -4.4 (+6.6) | 147.2 (+19.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -4.8 (+6.2) | 147.2 (+19.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -5.0 (+6.0) | 150.3 (+16.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UCF 82 – 71 TCU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UCF 85 – 58 TCU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UCF 79 – 77 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 8.2 (#74) | 6.8 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#61) | 1.45 (#66) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#73) | 1.62 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#72) | 0.543 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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