Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -350 UCF +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +2 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -6.9 (-8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -6.7 (-8.7) | 144.5 (+11.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -6.6 (-8.6) | 143.3 (+12.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -6.2 (-8.2) | 143.7 (+12.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -6.6 (-8.6) | 146.5 (+9.5) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UCF 82 – 71 TCU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TCU 89 – 78 UCF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UCF 85 – 58 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-8 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#22) | 10.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#35) | 1.02 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#40) | 1.43 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#81) | 0.527 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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