Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +145 UNM -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -4.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-3.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -2.8 (+0.8) | 147.6 (+0.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -2.8 (+0.8) | 144.3 (+3.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -3.3 (+1.3) | 142.1 (+5.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -2.9 (+0.9) | 142.6 (+5.4) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UNLV 84 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 12-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#106) | 11.5 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.11 (#87) | 2.10 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#81) | 3.10 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#108) | 0.605 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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