Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -800 UNLV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -13.9 (-16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -12.0 (-15.0) | 154.0 (+3.0) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -11.3 (-14.3) | 150.1 (+6.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -12.2 (-15.2) | 153.7 (+3.3) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -11.8 (-14.8) | 154.3 (+2.7) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UNLV 84 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#15) | 5.4 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#19) | 0.94 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#26) | 1.08 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#9) | 0.556 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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