Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
| Money | UNLV +118 UNM -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +10 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -4.2 (+14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -3.8 (+13.8) | 151.1 (+4.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -2.8 (+12.8) | 148.1 (+7.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -3.4 (+13.4) | 146.6 (+9.4) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -3.0 (+13.0) | 147.9 (+8.1) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UNLV 84 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#103) | 13.0 (#28) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#162) | 2.15 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#149) | 2.51 (#43) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#132) | 0.612 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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