Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UNLV +164 UNM -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +28 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -7.1 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.9 (-22.1) | 152.3 (-2.3) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -5.0 (-23.0) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -5.4 (-22.6) | 148.9 (+1.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -5.6 (-22.4) | 150.2 (-0.2) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UNLV 84 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 17-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#136) | 12.4 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#131) | 2.31 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#134) | 2.96 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#132) | 0.607 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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