Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -900 UNLV +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -11.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -9.5 (+4.5) | 145.2 (+2.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -10.5 (+3.5) | 144.1 (+3.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -10.2 (+3.8) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -9.5 (+4.5) | 146.5 (+1.5) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
| Jan 8, 2023 | UNLV 84 – 77 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#40) | 5.3 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#30) | 1.09 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#25) | 1.54 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#20) | 0.541 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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