Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -250 UNLV +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +7 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | UNM -7.4 (-14.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -5.7 (-12.7) | 151.5 (+9.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -7.3 (-14.3) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -6.7 (-13.7) | 150.2 (+10.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -6.4 (-13.4) | 150.9 (+10.1) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | UNM 89 – 61 UNLV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UNM 81 – 67 UNLV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNM 75 – 73 UNLV |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNLV 80 – 77 UNM |
| Jan 10, 2024 | UNLV 83 – 73 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#37) | 7.6 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#18) | 1.55 (#61) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#17) | 2.27 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#34) | 0.595 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 28.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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