Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | BTLR -275 DEP +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +17 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -6.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -5.6 (+11.4) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -7.3 (+9.7) | 147.9 (+7.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -5.5 (+11.5) | 146.3 (+8.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -5.4 (+11.6) | 147.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BTLR 81 – 71 DEP |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BTLR 87 – 80 DEP |
| Feb 23, 2025 | BTLR 84 – 72 DEP |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BTLR 82 – 63 DEP |
| Jan 20, 2024 | BTLR 74 – 60 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#82) | 3.5 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#143) | 0.09 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#98) | 0.32 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#166) | 0.485 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.5% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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