Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -192 BTLR +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +10 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | DEP -0.7 (-10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DEP -1.6 (-11.6) | 141.9 (+10.1) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DEP -0.6 (-10.6) | 140.8 (+11.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -2.0 (-12.0) | 136.7 (+15.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DEP -2.0 (-12.0) | 139.2 (+12.8) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BTLR 87 – 80 DEP |
| Feb 23, 2025 | BTLR 84 – 72 DEP |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BTLR 86 – 69 DEP |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BTLR 82 – 63 DEP |
| Jan 20, 2024 | BTLR 74 – 60 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-7 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.5 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#98) | 7.9 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#87) | 1.08 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#90) | 1.38 (#87) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#191) | 0.503 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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