Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +155 BTLR -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +12 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | BTLR -2.1 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -1.8 (-10.2) | 145.2 (+10.8) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -4.4 (-7.6) | 144.0 (+12.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -1.8 (-10.2) | 145.3 (+10.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -1.8 (-10.2) | 144.7 (+11.3) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BTLR 81 – 71 DEP |
| Jan 21, 2026 | BTLR 87 – 80 DEP |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BTLR 86 – 69 DEP |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BTLR 82 – 63 DEP |
| Jan 20, 2024 | BTLR 74 – 60 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 15-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-8 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#116) | 8.1 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#191) | 0.58 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#160) | 1.15 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#279) | 0.515 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 30.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 11.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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