Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MER +115 FUR -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +5 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -1.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.0 (-4.0) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -1.2 (-3.8) | 148.6 (+4.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -0.9 (-4.1) | 145.3 (+7.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -0.8 (-4.2) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MER 78 – 69 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#240) | 0.3 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#216) | 0.75 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#231) | 0.50 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#220) | 0.540 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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