Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | MER -170 FUR +142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +5 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MER -5.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -4.5 (+0.5) | 150.1 (-17.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.6 (+1.4) | 147.4 (-14.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -4.1 (+0.9) | 147.6 (-14.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -3.8 (+1.2) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MER 78 – 69 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#162) | -1.8 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#178) | -0.29 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#182) | -0.39 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#112) | 0.506 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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