Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -600 MER +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +7 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | FUR -8.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -9.1 (-16.1) | 150.5 (+6.5) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -8.4 (-15.4) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -7.4 (-14.4) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -8.1 (-15.1) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MER 78 – 69 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | -3.5 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#145) | -0.38 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#151) | -0.61 (#228) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#151) | 0.475 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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