Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -148 MER +124 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +2 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -3.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -3.6 (-1.6) | 148.8 (-2.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -2.2 (-0.2) | 147.0 (-1.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -2.2 (-0.2) | 147.5 (-1.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.7 (+0.3) | 148.7 (-2.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MER 78 – 69 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#168) | 1.3 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#126) | 0.66 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#150) | 0.72 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#79) | 0.540 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.1% |
Game Analysis
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