Betting Lines
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MER +145 FUR -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -1.7 (+10.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -1.8 (+10.8) | 145.1 (+1.9) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -1.8 (+10.8) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -1.7 (+10.7) | 146.9 (+0.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.7 (+10.7) | 147.5 (-0.5) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#232) | 1.3 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#257) | 0.16 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#276) | 0.18 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#233) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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