Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | FUR -275 MER +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +24 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -7.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -7.6 (+16.4) | 152.2 (+15.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -6.2 (+17.8) | 149.1 (+18.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -6.0 (+18.0) | 150.8 (+17.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -7.2 (+16.8) | 151.4 (+16.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
| Feb 8, 2024 | MER 78 – 69 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 9-6 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#165) | -4.5 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#114) | -0.71 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#140) | -1.13 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#93) | 0.455 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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