Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +110 HCU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +10 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | HCU -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -2.8 (-7.2) | 143.5 (+18.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.8 (-8.2) | 144.2 (+17.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -2.2 (-7.8) | 143.4 (+18.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -2.0 (-8.0) | 145.0 (+17.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NOLA 73 – 60 HCU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HCU 61 – 60 NOLA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | HCU 85 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HCU 81 – 68 NOLA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | NOLA 84 – 58 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-11 |
| Home | 0-11 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-15 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L13 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.5 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#335) | -6.6 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#291) | -1.29 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#296) | -1.28 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#254) | 0.445 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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