Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | HCU -750 NOLA +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +13 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -10.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -8.9 (+4.1) | 144.3 (+4.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -8.7 (+4.3) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -8.8 (+4.2) | 143.7 (+5.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -8.9 (+4.1) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NOLA 73 – 60 HCU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HCU 61 – 60 NOLA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | HCU 85 – 76 NOLA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HCU 86 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | NOLA 84 – 58 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 2-18 |
| Home | 8-7 | 0-11 |
| Away | 4-12 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 82.5 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#252) | -12.5 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#264) | -1.99 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#239) | -2.45 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#250) | 0.428 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NOLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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