Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NOLA -230 HCU +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -5.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -4.3 (+8.7) | 138.9 (-5.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -3.4 (+9.6) | 141.1 (-8.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -4.5 (+8.5) | 138.6 (-5.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -4.2 (+8.8) | 138.4 (-5.4) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HCU 61 – 60 NOLA |
| Dec 6, 2025 | HCU 85 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HCU 81 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HCU 86 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | NOLA 84 – 58 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 8-14 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#201) | -7.3 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#220) | -1.37 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#205) | -1.81 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#197) | 0.432 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.4% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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