Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -238 HCU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +9 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | NOLA -10.9 (-19.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -6.2 (-15.2) | 137.2 (+23.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -5.9 (-14.9) | 139.0 (+22.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -6.5 (-15.5) | 140.4 (+20.6) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -6.0 (-15.0) | 139.9 (+21.1) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | NOLA 73 – 60 HCU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HCU 61 – 60 NOLA |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HCU 81 – 68 NOLA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | HCU 86 – 76 NOLA |
| Feb 6, 2024 | NOLA 84 – 58 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 8-14 |
| Home | 5-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#169) | -6.1 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#174) | -1.48 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#173) | -2.56 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#128) | 0.410 (#310) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | HCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 58.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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