Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ASU +400 ISU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ASU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +15 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -7.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -6.8 (-8.2) | 143.5 (-6.5) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.0 (-10.0) | 143.1 (-6.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -5.3 (-9.7) | 142.6 (-5.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -5.2 (-9.8) | 144.8 (-7.8) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | ISU 91 – 42 ASU |
| Mar 7, 2026 | ISU 86 – 65 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ASU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#58) | 21.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#50) | 3.92 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#51) | 4.95 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.603 (#32) | 0.648 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ASU | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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