Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -2100 ASU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -16.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -14.3 (+6.7) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -12.6 (+8.4) | 147.1 (+3.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -12.1 (+8.9) | 145.2 (+5.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -13.9 (+7.1) | 147.5 (+3.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | ISU 91 – 42 ASU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | ISU 76 – 61 ASU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 78.3 |
| Massey | 22.3 (#8) | 9.0 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.51 (#12) | 1.90 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.25 (#13) | 2.40 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.617 (#21) | 0.556 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | ASU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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