Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -165 NWST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +3 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -2.3 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -0.6 (-2.4) | 129.3 (-18.3) | 42% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -1.6 (-4.6) | 129.0 (-18.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -0.1 (-3.1) | 128.0 (-17.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -0.2 (-3.2) | 129.2 (-18.2) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 2, 2022 | NWST 102 – 96 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.7 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#254) | -4.3 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.45 (#298) | -0.77 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#287) | -0.53 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#260) | 0.463 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 23.6% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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