Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NWST +350 SFA -455 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -12.8 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -11.8 (+1.8) | 138.5 (-0.5) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -10.2 (+0.2) | 138.9 (-0.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -11.3 (+1.3) | 138.7 (-0.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -11.4 (+1.4) | 140.4 (-2.4) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 2, 2022 | NWST 102 – 96 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 8-14 | 20-2 |
| Home | 8-6 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-15 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#306) | 6.9 (#89) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.51 (#339) | 1.26 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#328) | 1.78 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#322) | 0.535 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 27.1 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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