Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | NWST -140 SFA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -4.0 (-6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -2.9 (-4.9) | 129.8 (+8.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -0.7 (-2.7) | 131.0 (+7.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -1.7 (-3.7) | 130.8 (+7.2) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -2.1 (-4.1) | 128.7 (+9.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 2, 2022 | NWST 102 – 96 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 7-13 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 69.4 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#230) | -4.9 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#225) | -1.10 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#220) | -1.19 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#224) | 0.453 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 36.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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