Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NWST +800 SFA -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +26 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -6.3 (-32.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+24.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -2.2 (-28.2) | 140.1 (+25.9) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -0.8 (-26.8) | 144.2 (+21.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -0.3 (-26.3) | 141.7 (+24.3) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2022 | NWST 102 – 96 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#205) | 3.4 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#188) | -0.45 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#188) | -0.55 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#30) | 0.500 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 28.5% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 17.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 13.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 39.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 79.3% | 61.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 51.8% | 41.1% |
Game Analysis
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