Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -1650 NWST +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -17.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -16.7 (-14.7) | 140.2 (-4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -14.3 (-12.3) | 142.7 (-6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -15.5 (-13.5) | 142.1 (-6.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -16.6 (-14.6) | 141.1 (-5.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
| Dec 2, 2022 | NWST 102 – 96 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 20-2 | 8-14 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 12-4 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#88) | -7.5 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#75) | -1.59 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#76) | -2.01 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#92) | 0.414 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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