Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | SFA -800 NWST +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +6 | 198 | Lost |
| Massey | SFA -9.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+57.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -6.9 (-12.9) | 140.5 (+57.5) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -12.2 (-18.2) | 139.9 (+58.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -6.3 (-12.3) | 139.7 (+58.3) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -6.1 (-12.1) | 140.0 (+58.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 27, 2026 | SFA 69 – 67 NWST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | SFA 74 – 64 NWST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SFA 70 – 68 NWST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NWST 57 – 54 SFA |
| Nov 14, 2023 | SFA 96 – 70 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#148) | -1.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#129) | 1.10 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#119) | 0.73 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#208) | 0.553 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.5% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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