We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
Missouri State Bears
62 69 OT
FINAL Conference
Drake Bulldogs
Missouri Valley Conference · Great Southern Bank Arena · January 25, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread DRKE -8.5 Home covered
O/U 118.5 Over
Money MOST +380 / DRKE -550
Model Predictions
Spread Total MOST win
Actual DRKE +7 131 Lost
Massey DRKE -9.2 (+2.2)
Massey Totals 123.5 (+7.5)
Bradley-Terry 4%
Weighted B-T 3%
Baseline ML DRKE -10.1 (+3.1) 125.9 (+5.1) 15%
Baseline Plus ML DRKE -9.3 (+2.3) 125.4 (+5.6) 16%
Efficiency Plus ML DRKE -9.8 (+2.8) 126.2 (+4.8) 16%
Baseline Tuned ML DRKE -9.2 (+2.2) 130.0 (+1.0) 17%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 2, 2025 DRKE 6860 MOST
Jan 25, 2024 MOST 8380 DRKE
Dec 2, 2023 DRKE 7457 MOST
Jan 19, 2023 MOST 6562 DRKE
Jan 1, 2023 MOST 5249 DRKE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MOST DRKE
Overall 9-23 31-4
Conference 2-18 17-3
Home 7-8 14-2
Away 1-12 9-1
Neutral 1-3 8-1
Last 5 0-5 5-0
Streak L6 L1
Avg Pts For 67.5 68.5
Avg Pts Against 71.9 60.2
Massey -5.3 (#250) 7.3 (#80)
Bradley-Terry -1.35 (#288) 2.50 (#31)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.36 (#266) 2.88 (#38)
RPI 0.428 (#300) 0.599 (#37)
Shooting & Four Factors MOST DRKE
FG% 42.9% 47.8%
3PT% 36.7% 34.5%
REB / G 33.0 30.6
OREB / G 11.2 10.5
AST / TO 0.92 1.08
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 54.3%
TOV% 19.2% 19.8%
ORB% 32.3% 37.2%
FT Rate 25.0% 29.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.0% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 19.3% 22.4%
DRB% 71.0% 74.3%
Opp FT Rate 27.9% 28.5%

Game Analysis

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