Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +380 MCN -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +30 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -7.6 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -9.1 (-20.9) | 141.2 (+14.8) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -6.8 (-23.2) | 142.7 (+13.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -7.6 (-22.4) | 144.1 (+11.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -7.6 (-22.4) | 142.6 (+13.4) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 84 – 80 RGV |
| Feb 24, 2026 | MCN 75 – 68 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RGV 79 – 76 MCN |
| Feb 25, 2025 | MCN 100 – 65 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 19-1 |
| Home | 12-4 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-11 | 10-2 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 64.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#196) | 9.1 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#220) | 1.17 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#229) | 1.54 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#224) | 0.563 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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