Betting Lines
| Spread | MCN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MCN -2000 RGV +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +35 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MCN -15.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MCN -17.1 (+17.9) | 146.2 (+18.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -14.5 (+20.5) | 142.6 (+22.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -14.2 (+20.8) | 142.5 (+22.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -15.7 (+19.3) | 143.5 (+21.5) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | MCN 84 – 80 RGV |
| Feb 24, 2026 | MCN 75 – 68 RGV |
| Jan 17, 2026 | RGV 79 – 76 MCN |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MCN 93 – 63 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MCN | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 10-2 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.5 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#70) | -3.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#75) | -0.99 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#80) | -1.16 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.585 (#40) | 0.457 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MCN | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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