Betting Lines
| Spread | BUCK -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | BU -115 BUCK -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | BU -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+37.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -0.3 (+3.3) | 130.7 (+36.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -0.5 (+2.5) | 129.4 (+37.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -0.2 (+3.2) | 131.9 (+35.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.3 (+3.3) | 131.6 (+35.4) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | BU 82 – 69 BUCK |
| Jan 31, 2026 | BUCK 103 – 97 BU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BUCK 76 – 60 BU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BU 77 – 62 BUCK |
| Jan 18, 2024 | BUCK 73 – 57 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#301) | -5.7 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#273) | -1.02 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.64 (#285) | -1.24 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#289) | 0.451 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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