Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | BU -278 BUCK +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +13 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BU -8.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -6.5 (+6.5) | 145.9 (+5.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -4.5 (+8.5) | 144.2 (+6.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -6.2 (+6.8) | 145.3 (+5.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BU -5.6 (+7.4) | 145.7 (+5.3) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | BUCK 103 – 97 BU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BUCK 76 – 60 BU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BU 85 – 82 BUCK |
| Feb 10, 2024 | BU 77 – 62 BUCK |
| Jan 18, 2024 | BUCK 73 – 57 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#271) | -12.0 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#305) | -1.81 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.18 (#311) | -2.35 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#313) | 0.428 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.0% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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