Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU +135 SMU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +6 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -3.8 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -2.3 (-3.7) | 142.3 (-22.3) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -3.1 (-2.9) | 144.7 (-24.7) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -3.6 (-2.4) | 146.1 (-26.1) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -3.8 (-2.2) | 145.0 (-25.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | NCSU 84 – 83 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 13-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 0-11 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#95) | 12.3 (#45) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#170) | 1.88 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#136) | 2.33 (#58) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#219) | 0.566 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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