I'm not a coward; I've just never been tested. "The Impression That I Get" - The Mighty Mighty Bosstones
SMU Mustangs
83 84
FINAL Conference
NC State Wolfpack
Atlantic Coast Conference · Moody Coliseum (Dallas) · February 4, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread NCSU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 159.5 Over
Money SMU -105 / NCSU -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMU win
Actual NCSU +1 167 Lost
Massey NCSU -0.0 (-1.0)
Massey Totals 166.6 (+0.4)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 70%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -3.8 (-4.8) 155.5 (+11.5) 63%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -2.0 (-3.0) 159.1 (+7.9) 59%
Baseline ML SMU -2.1 (-3.1) 160.4 (+6.6) 62%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -1.7 (-2.7) 159.4 (+7.6) 52%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 25, 2025 SMU 6357 NCSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMU NCSU
Overall 20-14 20-14
Conference 8-10 10-8
Home 15-3 11-6
Away 3-8 6-4
Neutral 2-3 3-4
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 84.1 83.2
Avg Pts Against 77.9 76.3
Massey 15.5 (#33) 18.5 (#21)
Bradley-Terry 2.60 (#33) 2.24 (#42)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.27 (#34) 3.00 (#40)
RPI 0.625 (#22) 0.593 (#40)
Shooting & Four Factors SMU NCSU
FG% 49.4% 48.1%
3PT% 36.3% 39.9%
REB / G 38.1 36.0
OREB / G 12.2 9.9
AST / TO 1.46 1.74
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.7% 56.9%
TOV% 16.2% 13.6%
ORB% 35.2% 28.9%
FT Rate 26.1% 27.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.3% 50.5%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 19.6%
DRB% 68.2% 72.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.5% 26.4%

Game Analysis

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