Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -105 NCSU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +1 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -0.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -3.8 (-4.8) | 155.5 (+11.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -2.0 (-3.0) | 159.1 (+7.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -2.1 (-3.1) | 160.4 (+6.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.7 (-2.7) | 159.4 (+7.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 25, 2025 | SMU 63 – 57 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.1 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 15.5 (#33) | 18.5 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#33) | 2.24 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.27 (#34) | 3.00 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#22) | 0.593 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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