Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | WAKE +475 DUKE -750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +7 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -16.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -10.8 (+3.8) | 134.0 (-15.0) | 15% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.1 (+4.1) | 136.5 (-17.5) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -10.4 (+3.4) | 132.5 (-13.5) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -10.2 (+3.2) | 132.7 (-13.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2023 | DUKE 75 – 73 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 19-1 |
| Home | 13-3 | 17-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#88) | 26.2 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#29) | 4.01 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#35) | 5.40 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#47) | 0.656 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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