Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -2800 WAKE +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -19.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -19.9 (+1.1) | 150.0 (+9.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -16.3 (+4.7) | 151.8 (+7.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -17.0 (+4.0) | 146.6 (+12.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -17.6 (+3.4) | 149.7 (+9.3) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2023 | DUKE 75 – 73 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 13-7 |
| Away | 10-1 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 26.0 (#2) | 10.1 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.94 (#4) | 1.40 (#73) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.11 (#3) | 1.69 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.688 (#2) | 0.562 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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