Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -6000 WAKE +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +33 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -23.5 (+9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -21.3 (+11.7) | 143.6 (+9.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -17.4 (+15.6) | 145.3 (+7.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -18.3 (+14.7) | 144.3 (+8.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -20.0 (+13.0) | 144.7 (+8.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2023 | DUKE 75 – 73 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-4 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 27.5 (#2) | 7.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.96 (#5) | 2.09 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.09 (#4) | 2.38 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#5) | 0.566 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.6% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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