Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Atlantic Coast Conference · Cameron Indoor Stadium · March 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread DUKE -19.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money DUKE -6000 / WAKE +1800
Model Predictions
Spread Total DUKE win
Actual DUKE +33 153 Won
Massey DUKE -23.5 (+9.5)
Massey Totals 136.6 (+16.4)
Bradley-Terry 92%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML DUKE -17.4 (+15.6) 145.3 (+7.7) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML DUKE -18.3 (+14.7) 144.3 (+8.7) 90%
Baseline ML DUKE -20.0 (+13.0) 144.7 (+8.3) 91%
Baseline Plus ML DUKE -21.3 (+11.7) 143.6 (+9.4) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 24, 2026 DUKE 9069 WAKE
Jan 25, 2025 DUKE 6356 WAKE
Feb 24, 2024 WAKE 8379 DUKE
Feb 13, 2024 DUKE 7769 WAKE
Feb 1, 2023 DUKE 7573 WAKE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings DUKE WAKE
Overall 35-4 21-11
Conference 19-1 13-7
Home 17-0 13-3
Away 10-1 6-6
Neutral 8-3 2-2
Last 5 5-0 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.2 70.2
Avg Pts Against 62.8 68.0
Massey 27.5 (#2) 7.2 (#79)
Bradley-Terry 3.96 (#5) 2.09 (#44)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.09 (#4) 2.38 (#52)
RPI 0.651 (#5) 0.566 (#58)
Shooting & Four Factors DUKE WAKE
FG% 49.0% 45.4%
3PT% 38.6% 28.6%
REB / G 38.7 32.7
OREB / G 11.3 8.6
AST / TO 1.84 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 57.7% 50.4%
TOV% 14.1% 16.7%
ORB% 35.4% 26.6%
FT Rate 25.2% 27.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.2% 47.5%
Opp TOV% 17.9% 19.7%
DRB% 73.9% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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