Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -450 WAKE +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -9.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -8.5 (-6.5) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -9.1 (-7.1) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -8.9 (-6.9) | 147.8 (+0.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -8.5 (-6.5) | 149.2 (-1.2) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#27) | 6.5 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#26) | 1.57 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#27) | 2.08 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#19) | 0.566 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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