Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -154 DUKE +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | WAKE -0.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAKE -1.6 (+2.4) | 145.8 (+16.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAKE -0.8 (+3.2) | 144.4 (+17.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAKE -1.5 (+2.5) | 145.0 (+17.0) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAKE -2.0 (+2.0) | 145.5 (+16.5) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 13, 2024 | DUKE 77 – 69 WAKE |
| Feb 1, 2023 | DUKE 75 – 73 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 13.9 (#23) | 17.2 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#52) | 2.57 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#44) | 3.32 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#58) | 0.609 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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