Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | DUKE -300 WAKE +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +8 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -6.3 (+1.7) | 147.0 (-1.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -6.3 (+1.7) | 149.8 (-3.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -5.7 (+2.3) | 150.6 (-4.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -6.2 (+1.8) | 151.5 (-5.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | DUKE 90 – 69 WAKE |
| Mar 4, 2025 | DUKE 93 – 60 WAKE |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DUKE 63 – 56 WAKE |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WAKE 83 – 79 DUKE |
| Feb 1, 2023 | DUKE 75 – 73 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 17-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#16) | 12.9 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#26) | 1.81 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#18) | 2.37 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#33) | 0.582 (#48) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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