Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -200 JOES +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.8 (-0.8) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.4 (-0.4) | 144.0 (+5.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.3 (-0.3) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.2 (-0.2) | 143.9 (+5.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
| Jan 5, 2023 | DAY 76 – 56 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#72) | 6.6 (#86) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#75) | 0.67 (#112) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#68) | 0.83 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#68) | 0.536 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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