Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +110 DAY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +15 | 173 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -2.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+30.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.9 (-13.1) | 142.5 (+30.5) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.3 (-11.7) | 141.4 (+31.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.0 (-12.0) | 142.4 (+30.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.7 (-12.3) | 140.1 (+32.9) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
| Jan 5, 2023 | DAY 76 – 56 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#89) | 12.7 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#103) | 2.81 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#101) | 3.36 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#100) | 0.656 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 15.2% |
Game Analysis
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