Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -600 JOES +430 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +6 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -8.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -8.3 (-2.3) | 135.6 (-21.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -7.8 (-1.8) | 135.7 (-21.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -8.2 (-2.2) | 135.7 (-21.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -8.3 (-2.3) | 136.1 (-22.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Jan 5, 2023 | DAY 76 – 56 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#76) | -1.0 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#99) | -0.17 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#88) | -0.22 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#92) | 0.498 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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