Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -115 JOES -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -0.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -1.0 (-6.0) | 143.9 (-2.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -1.4 (-6.4) | 144.2 (-3.2) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -0.7 (-5.7) | 144.9 (-3.9) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -0.5 (-5.5) | 146.2 (-5.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
| Jan 5, 2023 | DAY 76 – 56 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#73) | 7.2 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#61) | 0.92 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#66) | 1.19 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#51) | 0.560 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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