Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -1000 JOES +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -15.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -14.2 (+5.8) | 135.2 (-3.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.7 (+6.3) | 133.9 (-1.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -12.9 (+7.1) | 135.8 (-3.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.1 (+6.9) | 135.0 (-3.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | JOES 81 – 74 DAY |
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#75) | -3.6 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#89) | -1.12 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#80) | -1.50 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#93) | 0.450 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | JOES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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