Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | JOES +230 DAY -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -6.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.8 (+12.8) | 140.5 (+14.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.0 (+11.0) | 139.9 (+15.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.8 (+11.8) | 137.2 (+17.8) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.9 (+12.9) | 137.1 (+17.9) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | JOES 73 – 68 DAY |
| Jan 25, 2025 | DAY 77 – 72 JOES |
| Feb 7, 2024 | DAY 94 – 79 JOES |
| Mar 9, 2023 | DAY 60 – 54 JOES |
| Jan 5, 2023 | DAY 76 – 56 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 8-8 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#201) | 7.3 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#153) | 1.20 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#180) | 1.59 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#143) | 0.557 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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