← All models
Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
84–34 on winners
spread MAE 8.7
118 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+2.7 | 154.6 | 69% | 82–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 146.5 | 87% | 65–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 127.4 | 70% | 61–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 136.2 | 79% | 51–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.1 | 135.5 | 33% | 66–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.7 | 134.1 | 88% | 51–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 140.4 | 59% | 73–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.1 | 132.7 | 68% | 73–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 133.8 | 71% | 52–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.0 | 133.8 | 58% | 55–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 131.8 | 79% | 82–79 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.4 | 134.2 | 87% | 52–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 131.9 | 56% | 68–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 135.2 | 58% | 53–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-14.6 | 148.8 | 13% | 68–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 137.3 | 66% | 64–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 153.9 | 51% | 83–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 130.1 | 70% | 55–61 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 131.7 | 68% | 53–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 142.3 | 62% | 93–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 143.8 | 81% | 62–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.1 | 129.2 | 52% | 66–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.5 | 147.4 | 31% | 81–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.1 | 145.7 | 88% | 64–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 143.7 | 86% | 61–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 148.1 | 66% | 46–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 136.3 | 73% | 65–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.0 | 136.1 | 72% | 71–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.5 | 131.6 | 22% | 79–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.0 | 138.2 | 42% | 83–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.0 | 132.2 | 40% | 65–59 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.0 | 145.3 | 47% | 89–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.0 | 148.9 | 59% | 52–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 130.4 | 86% | 43–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.4 | 143.7 | 87% | 52–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 141.4 | 68% | 73–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 160.6 | 79% | 90–89 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 142.9 | 81% | 61–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.9 | 142.4 | 31% | 81–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.3 | 143.4 | 41% | 49–84 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.6 | 135.1 | 25% | 86–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.8 | 153.2 | 47% | 93–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.7 | 134.5 | 77% | 66–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 127.3 | 83% | 48–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 130.7 | 78% | 50–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.8 | 147.5 | 47% | 68–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.7 | 135.6 | 71% | 54–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.4 | 149.3 | 85% | 68–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 135.8 | 65% | 65–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 134.0 | 28% | 79–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 144.3 | 71% | 86–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.4 | 130.4 | 24% | 70–63 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.7 | 148.8 | 29% | 84–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.5 | 137.8 | 64% | 74–73 | ✗ |
|
|
-8.3 | 129.1 | 28% | 67–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 154.5 | 85% | 80–99 | ✓ |
|
|
-7.6 | 136.4 | 19% | 62–49 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 154.6 | 70% | 79–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.1 | 137.2 | 36% | 61–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.7 | 149.4 | 32% | 85–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 146.3 | 53% | 78–74 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.8 | 135.9 | 18% | 87–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 140.8 | 80% | 62–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 134.1 | 70% | 66–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.8 | 136.7 | 40% | 72–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 137.4 | 49% | 57–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 144.5 | 77% | 85–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 144.6 | 40% | 75–72 | ✓ |
|
|
-12.9 | 135.1 | 14% | 65–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 137.8 | 54% | 74–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 147.3 | 21% | 79–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 147.0 | 59% | 69–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.2 | 123.3 | 41% | 67–52 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.0 | 144.5 | 64% | 72–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.1 | 133.6 | 32% | 60–61 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.0 | 150.8 | 67% | 56–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 137.4 | 66% | 69–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.7 | 151.1 | 88% | 72–76 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.1 | 141.8 | 20% | 83–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.6 | 138.0 | 35% | 70–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.5 | 139.4 | 41% | 63–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 138.1 | 87% | 58–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 128.1 | 58% | 64–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.0 | 140.7 | 31% | 70–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.3 | 132.5 | 27% | 73–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.1 | 153.4 | 53% | 80–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.3 | 141.8 | 61% | 71–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.3 | 145.9 | 40% | 65–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.2 | 147.7 | 33% | 84–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 148.3 | 46% | 75–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.1 | 163.4 | 84% | 71–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.8 | 136.9 | 78% | 67–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.4 | 128.4 | 33% | 68–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 140.5 | 84% | 75–90 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.7 | 139.9 | 40% | 77–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.8 | 144.0 | 41% | 78–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-9.7 | 127.6 | 18% | 58–70 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 149.3 | 61% | 86–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.7 | 136.0 | 72% | 82–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 134.9 | 27% | 64–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.0 | 137.0 | 49% | 58–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.1 | 136.3 | 75% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 146.0 | 79% | 68–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+17.0 | 147.5 | 90% | 66–88 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.4 | 137.1 | 36% | 77–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.9 | 139.4 | 19% | 72–53 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.4 | 156.4 | 48% | 86–92 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 136.2 | 63% | 68–65 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.7 | 141.6 | 87% | 60–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.8 | 138.0 | 64% | 52–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.2 | 150.0 | 86% | 67–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.4 | 142.4 | 48% | 68–57 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 143.9 | 87% | 62–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 134.6 | 77% | 76–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.3 | 142.2 | 35% | 61–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.0 | 136.6 | 81% | 82–78 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.1 | 139.6 | 76% | 60–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 142.0 | 75% | 57–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.